Index of Leading Economic Indicators Source: Conference Board Frequency: Monthly Availability: Four to five weeks following the reported month Possible Impact on Interest Rates: The LEI has little impact on bond prices and interest rates
Current Data Reported April 5, 2000: The index of leading economic indicators, used to predict future economic activity, fell 0.3% in February. This is the first negative reading in several months and certainly does not suggest any change in trend. The largest drag on the overall index came from the yield curve and new capital goods orders. Consumer confidence remains at an historically high level. Initial claims continue to trend well below the 300K level. Every other indication suggests the economy is going strong and not close to showing any signs of slowing significantly. See "Overview" below for more information. Overview: The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is intended to predict future economic activity. Typically, three consecutive monthly LEI changes in the same direction suggest a turning point in the economy. For example, consecutive negative readings would indicate a possible recession. The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is a composite of the following 10 leading indicators:
While the LEI is an important forecasting tool, it has little impact on the bond market, because most of its components are published prior to its release.
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